Moneyball. The idea was first made commercial by baseball when the Oakland A’s shirked conventional wisdom and used algorithms to determine which players would best function together. I believe this to be the only logical way the New York Knicks can return to relevance in basketball. The Knicks have had a better than 50% win record just twice in the last decade. In each of those seasons they were top four in the eastern conference. They haven’t won 55 games in a season since the 94-95 season, which is to say they haven’t been particularly relevant in approaching thirty years. Why? Old thinking. They’ve been chasing that Ewing team for a decade and it put them in cap hell. The answer then is to step away from chasing big money and start chasing big roles.
Most teams in the NBA rely on a superstar and build around that star in a way that promotes what that star is particularly good at while allowing role players to come and go around that star, so the franchise at least has a face. Now this can be successful if your star is a top NBA player, but even then today’s NBA requires a number 2 guy. Lebron needed Kyrie or Anthony Davis or Dwayne Wade to take off some of the pressure, because the reality was that teams understood that winning meant stopping Lebron. It is nearly impossible to stop a team with multiple stars, because you cannot scheme against that. Only, I believe you don’t need stars. You need good players and good scheme and smart rotation. You need a handful of hungry Al Horford types, a DeAndre Ayton type, a coterie of shooters, etc. The reason for this is simple and we see it happen with every so-called cinderella in the NCAA. When players of a similar skill level and deep rotation work together, they are successful. There is little fall off when one player is off the court because: Next man up. Furthermore, different groups can play with different schemes, highlighting different talents, so a defense cannot reasonably key on one thing. This last bit is especially important in the playoffs where you see teams like the Warriors forced to change their offense in order to be effective against a team that studies and plays good D.
I propose the Knicks start fresh. Get rid of as much expiring money as possible and retool around four different offensive schemes and players who can be effective in at least two of those schemes. Every night a new look and a new rotation. Make it less about stars and more about squad and you’ll carry the Knicks back out of the basement. Stars aren’t coming to New York. You need roleplayers who want to win.