I’m a bit rusty at this, so be gentle. Well, the truth is the Wednesday posts are the least read posts of the week/year/ever, so the only critic I need to worry about when it comes to football pics is myself. It is a shame nobody listens, though. See, I’m pretty damn good at this. Once I recognized that my athletic days were long behind me (though I still feel the need to make excuses for not showing up to the Sunday morning pickup game), I made an effort to learn all I could about the game and be good in terms of analysis. Last year that meant I beat all but 3 of the ESPN pros. This year I actually know what I’m doing.
So, its on. Here it goes:
Denver over Baltimore
Ray Rice is going to run wild and give me a heap of fantasy points. Unfortunately, the lack of a serious Raven secondary and presence of a hungry team of wideouts means Manning will be able to bounce back quick. Look for the second half to turn ugly.
New England over Buffalo
There is a lot of talk about the changes on the Baltimore defense. Remember, the guy they went with has a history of doing good things against Patriots offenses. Unfortunately, the Patriots have more talent and have a scheme they know better than the scheme Buffalo does not know. It will be closer than we could imagine on the surface, but Brady is still going to be Brady.
Seattle over Carolina
Upset alert! I want to believe that Carolina can show the fans something at home in this nascent 2013-14 season. I just don’t believe they have accumulated enough talent to do so against a defense that could very well be a top 5 this year. Get your Skittles ready.
Cincinnati over Chicago
Call this one the HBO bump. I wasn’t terribly interested in the Hard Knocks show this season, but I am aware of how much better the Bengals play when under the spotlight. Oh, and James Harrison is over there now. There’s that.
Miami over Cleveland
2013’s answer to the Sacko Bowl comes early this year. CLE was excellent in the preseason, and Miami was not. Still, the preseason is about developing a depth chart and where depth matters (at the top of the chart) CLE is still rather thin. Their running game should keep it close, but not close enough.
Oakland over Indy
Spoiler alert: Pryor is legit as a scrambling QB. He won’t shock the world this year or even perform at a Vick level, but he will do enough in the early going to give Raider fans hope. Hope that will be snatched away in week 2.
KC over JAC
NO over ATL
TB over NYJ
All three of those games aren’t even in contention. People will readily assume ATL is a good matchup, but it is week 1 and they are not 100%. KC is still healthy (wait for it), and my beloved Jets stink worse than a skunk in decomp.
Pit over TEN
SF over GB
Nnamdi has a lot to prove here, and he will get his chance against this 3 wide set where he will likely draw the job of covering Nelson or Cobb in the slot. As he goes so does the game, because CK isn’t turning into Superman in week 1.
Arizona over St Louis
Toughest pick of the night. STL did very well against division rivals last season–at least in comparison to the rest of their record. I believe in AZ early. I have no reason to believe in AZ past week 5.
NYG over DAL
No-brainer. Eli signed his name on the wall in the guest locker room on opening night. Giants have owned the stadium ever since.
PHI over WAS
Incredibly interesting battle of old philosophy vs. new and the eventual passing of the torch from dad the coach to son the coach. There is going to be a ton of offense here.
Hou over SD
Who Cares? Bowl 2013. Seriously. Does anyone believe either of these teams are contenders past the 1st round of the playoffs? HOU has the best defensive player in the sport, but their offense sputters and coughs like a 89 yr old smoker on a ventilator. Their #1 receiver is roughly that old in football years. Their #1 RB will dress, might play, might not. Ben Tate is more than a serviceable backup, and if I were coaching I would play Tate and rest Foster for a few more weeks. I would also have found a legit #2 wideout through trades or maybe the draft, but that is just me.
Some Thoughts:
- Finally started Gone Girl. I’m impressed with the female reader as much as I am with the flow of the writing for that character. It is the creepy male protag that has me unsure. The casting of Affleck as the lead in the movie version only confirms the creep factor.